Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 69

Detroit Lions 26 – Atlanta Falcons 30

What Actually Happened

(3:01) 18-J.Locke punts 47 yards to ATL 22, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts. PENALTY on DET-26-D.Carey, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at ATL 22.

The Three Options

GO -1.59 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.37 EP
66% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 69, worth -3.12 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model