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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 69

Atlanta Falcons 30 – Detroit Lions 26

What Actually Happened

(3:26) 5-M.Bosher punts 48 yards to DET 21, Center-47-J.Harris. 15-G.Tate to DET 31 for 10 yards (40-D.Coleman).

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.13 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 69, worth -3.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.99 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 27, worth -0.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP