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Atlanta Falcons

HC Dan Quinn
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CHI Home

Chicago Bears

HC John Fox
Sunday 2017-09-10 · 13:00 Soldier Field, Chicago US ☀️ Clear Spread -6.5 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

ATL
64.6%
CHI
35.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ATL offense: +0.258 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • QB edge to CHI: Mike Glennon (CHI) +0.594 vs Matt Ryan (ATL) +0.349 EPA/dropback
  • CHI defense: +0.117 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • CHI offense: -0.073 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • Mike Glennon (CHI) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

ATL 25
–
CHI 20
Projected margin: ATL by 5 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

ATL

Brian Hill RB Out Ankle
Austin Pasztor T Questionable Chest

CHI

Prince Amukamara CB Doubtful Ankle
Kyle Long G Questionable Ankle
Pernell McPhee LB Questionable Knee
Markus Wheaton WR Questionable Finger

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 23
–
CHI 17

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:01 FG ATL (8:01) (Field Goal formation) 3-M.Bryant 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. ATL 3 – CHI 0
  • Q2 15:00 FG CHI (15:00) (Field Goal formation) 4-C.Barth 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-A.DePaola, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. ATL 3 – CHI 3
  • Q2 04:34 TD ATL (4:34) 24-D.Freeman left tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 9 – CHI 3
  • Q2 00:20 TD CHI (:20) Direct snap to 29-T.Cohen. 24-Jo.Howard right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Wildcat formation - #8 M.Glennon lined up at WR (right side) ATL 10 – CHI 9
  • Q3 02:15 FG ATL (2:15) (Field Goal formation) 3-M.Bryant 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. ATL 13 – CHI 10
  • Q4 12:10 TD ATL (12:10) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep middle to 81-A.Hooper for 88 yards, TOUCHDOWN [96-A.Hicks]. ATL 19 – CHI 10
  • Q4 07:33 TD CHI (7:33) (Shotgun) 8-M.Glennon pass short right to 29-T.Cohen for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 20 – CHI 16
  • Q4 03:29 FG ATL (3:29) (Field Goal formation) 3-M.Bryant 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. ATL 23 – CHI 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 2 at the 30
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.29 EP
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 73%

    (8:01) (Field Goal formation) 3-M.Bryant 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 6 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (4:32) (Punt formation) 5-M.Bosher punts 57 yards to CHI 9, Center-47-J.Harris. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 23 for 14 yards (85-E.Saubert).

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 3 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (5:33) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 52 yards to ATL 15, Center-49-A.DePaola. 19-A.Roberts to ATL 30 for 15 yards (52-C.Jones; 30-B.Cunningham).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 12 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 59%

    (15:00) (Field Goal formation) 4-C.Barth 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-A.DePaola, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (13:29) (Punt formation) 5-M.Bosher punts 62 yards to CHI 8, Center-47-J.Harris. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 22 for 14 yards (47-J.Harris; 42-D.Riley). PENALTY on ATL-29-C.Goodwin, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at CHI 22.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 14 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (11:40) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 59 yards to ATL 8, Center-49-A.DePaola. 19-A.Roberts to ATL 17 for 9 yards (44-N.Kwiatkoski).

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 20 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (12:19) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 69 yards to end zone, Center-49-A.DePaola, Touchback.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 17 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (10:22) (Punt formation) 5-M.Bosher punts 59 yards to CHI 28, Center-47-J.Harris. 29-T.Cohen pushed ob at CHI 45 for 17 yards (40-D.Coleman).

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 4 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 25%

    (8:47) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 35 yards to ATL 14, Center-49-A.DePaola, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 10 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 96%

    (2:15) (Field Goal formation) 3-M.Bryant 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 4 at the 39
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 50%

    (13:04) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 29 yards to ATL 10, Center-49-A.DePaola, downed by CHI-38-A.Amos. PENALTY on ATL-23-R.Alford, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at ATL 10.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 6 at the 19 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 90%

    (3:29) (Field Goal formation) 3-M.Bryant 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 3 at the 42 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 42%

    (:46) (Shotgun) 8-M.Glennon pass short middle to 15-J.Bellamy to ATL 28 for 14 yards (21-D.Trufant).

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 5 at the 5 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

    (:08) (Shotgun) 8-M.Glennon sacked at ATL 14 for -9 yards (50-B.Reed).