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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 66

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(4:32) (Punt formation) 5-M.Bosher punts 57 yards to CHI 9, Center-47-J.Harris. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 23 for 14 yards (85-E.Saubert).

The Three Options

GO -1.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.77 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 66, worth -3.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 24, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model