Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 20 at the 69

Chicago Bears 10 – Atlanta Falcons 10

(12:19) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 69 yards to end zone, Center-49-A.DePaola, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -2.26 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.93 EP
76% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 69, worth -3.88 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model