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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 5 at the 70

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(13:29) (Punt formation) 5-M.Bosher punts 62 yards to CHI 8, Center-47-J.Harris. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 22 for 14 yards (47-J.Harris; 42-D.Riley). PENALTY on ATL-29-C.Goodwin, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at CHI 22.

The Three Options

GO -1.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.44 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 70, worth -4.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.41 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 28, worth -1.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model