4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 49

Chicago Bears 10 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(8:47) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 35 yards to ATL 14, Center-49-A.DePaola, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.05 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.73 EP
KICK -1.50 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 14, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model