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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 17 at the 87

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(10:22) (Punt formation) 5-M.Bosher punts 59 yards to CHI 28, Center-47-J.Harris. 29-T.Cohen pushed ob at CHI 45 for 17 yards (40-D.Coleman).

The Three Options

GO -3.02 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.22 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 87, worth -5.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 45, worth -2.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model