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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 30

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(8:01) (Field Goal formation) 3-M.Bryant 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +1.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.09 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30, worth -1.69 EP
KICK +0.60 EP
What Happened
  • 73% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 40, worth -2.39 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.29 EP