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PIT Away

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
@
NE Home

New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
Sunday 2017-01-22 · 18:40 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US 🌧 Rain Spread 5.5 O/U 49.5

Win Probability

PIT
34.8%
NE
65.2%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PIT offense: +0.127 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • NE defense: -0.237 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • NE offense: +0.096 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • QB edge to NE: Tom Brady (NE) +0.274 vs Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) +0.133 EPA/dropback
  • PIT defense: -0.089 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

PIT 21
–
NE 26
Projected margin: NE by 5 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 20

PIT

James Harrison LB Questionable Shoulder
Fitzgerald Toussaint RB Questionable Concussion
Ladarius Green TE Questionable Concussion

NE

Danny Amendola WR Questionable Ankle
Martellus Bennett TE Questionable Knee
Brandon Bolden RB Questionable Knee
Dont'a Hightower LB Questionable Knee
Chris Hogan WR Questionable Thigh
Malcolm Mitchell WR Questionable Knee
Jabaal Sheard DE Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 20 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 17
–
NE 36

Prediction missed by 14 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 13:12 FG NE (13:12) 3-S.Gostkowski 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 3-Gostkowski 27th career postseason FG, new franchise record (Vinatieri, 26) and 4th all-time. PIT 0 – NE 3
  • Q1 02:55 TD NE (2:55) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 15-C.Hogan for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 0 – NE 9
  • Q2 11:37 TD PIT (11:37) 34-D.Williams left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 6 – NE 10
  • Q2 07:54 TD NE (7:54) Flea flicker-handoff to 33-Lewis then pitch back to Brady. 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 15-C.Hogan for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 19th career postseason game with 2 pass TD, extends his NFL record (Favre, 15). NE 15-Hogan 1st career postseason 100-yard game. PIT 6 – NE 16
  • Q2 01:43 FG PIT (1:43) 9-C.Boswell 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 9 – NE 17
  • Q3 10:04 FG NE (10:04) 3-S.Gostkowski 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. PIT 9 – NE 20
  • Q3 02:49 TD NE (2:49) (No Huddle) 29-L.Blount up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 29-Blount 8th career postseason rush TD, ties 4 others for 11th all-time. PIT 9 – NE 26
  • Q3 01:40 TD NE (1:40) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 11-J.Edelman for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 9th career postseason game with 3 pass TD, ties Joe Montana for most all-time. NE 11-Edelman 4th career postseason 100-yard game, ties franchise record (Branch). PIT 9 – NE 33
  • Q4 06:27 FG NE (6:27) 3-S.Gostkowski 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 3-Gostkowski now has 154 career postseason points, passing Gary Anderson for 3rd all-time. PIT 9 – NE 36
  • Q4 03:42 TD PIT (3:42) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep right to 83-C.Hamilton for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 15 – NE 36

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 1 at the 13
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.26 EP
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 94%

    (13:12) 3-S.Gostkowski 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 3-Gostkowski 27th career postseason FG, new franchise record (Vinatieri, 26) and 4th all-time.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 1 at the 69
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (11:36) 4-J.Berry punts 36 yards to NE 33, Center-60-G.Warren, out of bounds.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 6 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 36%

    (7:30) 4-J.Berry punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-60-G.Warren, Touchback.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%

    (1:43) 9-C.Boswell 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 4 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (13:19) 4-J.Berry punts 47 yards to NE 16, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 11-J.Edelman.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 10 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 75%

    (10:04) 3-S.Gostkowski 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 7 at the 39
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 50%

    (6:44) 4-J.Berry punts 27 yards to NE 12, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 11-J.Edelman.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 98%

    (13:11) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete short right to 83-C.Hamilton (26-L.Ryan).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 6 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (10:36) 6-R.Allen punts 58 yards to PIT 25, Center-49-J.Cardona. 84-A.Brown to PIT 35 for 10 yards (31-J.Jones).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 97%

    (6:27) 3-S.Gostkowski 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 3-Gostkowski now has 154 career postseason points, passing Gary Anderson for 3rd all-time.