4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 13

New England Patriots 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:12) 3-S.Gostkowski 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 3-Gostkowski 27th career postseason FG, new franchise record (Vinatieri, 26) and 4th all-time.

The Three Options

GO +3.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.28 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 13, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.19 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.55 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.26 EP