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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 2

Pittsburgh Steelers 9 – New England Patriots 33

What Actually Happened

(13:11) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete short right to 83-C.Hamilton (26-L.Ryan).

The Three Options

GO +3.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.87 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 2, worth +0.44 EP
KICK +1.88 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -0.81 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model