4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 69

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – New England Patriots 3

What Actually Happened

(11:36) 4-J.Berry punts 36 yards to NE 33, Center-60-G.Warren, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.06 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 69, worth -4.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.50 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 27, worth -1.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP