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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 5

Pittsburgh Steelers 6 – New England Patriots 17

What Actually Happened

(1:43) 9-C.Boswell 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +1.27 EP
  • 37% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.31 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 5, worth -1.08 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -1.40 EP
PUNT -0.98 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model