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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 29

New England Patriots 17 – Pittsburgh Steelers 9

What Actually Happened

(10:04) 3-S.Gostkowski 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +0.87 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.95 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 29, worth -0.89 EP
KICK +1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.47 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.60 EP
PUNT +0.46 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model