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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 44

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – New England Patriots 3

What Actually Happened

(7:30) 4-J.Berry punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-60-G.Warren, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.19 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 44, worth -2.62 EP
KICK -1.33 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -3.05 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 12, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model