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San Diego Chargers

HC Mike McCoy
@
CAR Home

Carolina Panthers

HC Ron Rivera
Sunday 2016-12-11 · 13:00 Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US ☀️ Clear Spread 1.0 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

SD
48.8%
CAR
51.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Cam Newton (CAR): -0.041 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • CAR offense: -0.029 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • Philip Rivers (LAC): +0.097 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

SD 23
–
CAR 24
Projected margin: CAR by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

SD

Brandon Flowers CB Out Concussion
Jatavis Brown LB Questionable Knee
Orlando Franklin G Questionable Knee

CAR

Charles Johnson DE Out Hamstring
David Mayo LB Out Concussion
Daryl Williams T Out Ankle
Mario Addison DE Questionable Foot
Kurt Coleman S Questionable Concussion
Luke Kuechly LB Questionable Concussion
Daryl Worley CB Questionable Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SD 16
–
CAR 28

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:24 FG CAR (10:24) 9-G.Gano 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. SD 0 – CAR 3
  • Q1 01:52 TD CAR (1:52) 28-J.Stewart right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. David Yankey reported as eligible SD 0 – CAR 9
  • Q2 11:17 TD CAR (11:17) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 17-D.Funchess for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SD 0 – CAR 16
  • Q2 05:28 FG CAR (5:28) 9-G.Gano 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. SD 0 – CAR 20
  • Q2 03:54 FG CAR (3:54) 9-G.Gano 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. SD 0 – CAR 23
  • Q2 01:08 TD LAC (1:08) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 86-H.Henry for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SD 6 – CAR 23
  • Q3 11:33 FG CAR (11:33) 9-G.Gano 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. SD 7 – CAR 26
  • Q3 04:30 FG LAC (4:30) 2-J.Lambo 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens. SD 10 – CAR 26
  • Q3 00:38 TD LAC (:38) 17-P.Rivers pass deep right to 15-D.Inman for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SD 16 – CAR 26
  • Q4 10:16 SAF CAR (10:16) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers sacked in End Zone for -4 yards, SAFETY (97-M.Addison). SD 16 – CAR 28

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 16 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (13:41) 8-D.Kaser punts 47 yards to CAR 34, Center-47-M.Windt. 19-T.Ginn to CAR 48 for 14 yards (53-J.Perry).

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 8 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 86%

    (10:24) 9-G.Gano 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 6 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 42%

    (6:21) 5-M.Palardy punts 32 yards to LAC 11, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 89-I.Burse.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 16 at the 95
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (5:19) 8-D.Kaser punts 30 yards to LAC 35, Center-47-M.Windt, downed by LAC-47-M.Windt.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 12 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (8:27) 8-D.Kaser punts 45 yards to CAR 36, Center-47-M.Windt. 19-T.Ginn to CAR 40 for 4 yards (51-K.Emanuel).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 7 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 82%

    (5:28) 9-G.Gano 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 9 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 80%

    (3:54) 9-G.Gano 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

    (11:33) 9-G.Gano 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 13 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 94%

    (4:30) 2-J.Lambo 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 18 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (2:48) 5-M.Palardy punts 48 yards to LAC 35, Center-44-J.Jansen. 89-I.Burse to LAC 34 for -1 yards (43-F.Whittaker).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 16 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (14:17) 5-M.Palardy punts 49 yards to LAC 32, Center-44-J.Jansen. 89-I.Burse to LAC 26 for -6 yards (42-C.Jones).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 1 at the 50
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 26%

    (8:04) 28-J.Stewart right guard to LAC 38 for 12 yards (56-K.Toomer).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 15 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 42%

    (5:51) 5-M.Palardy punts 40 yards to LAC 3, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-57-J.Cash.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 10 at the 79 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.97 EP
    p(convert) 36%

    (4:03) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep left intended for 16-Ty.Williams INTERCEPTED by 20-K.Coleman at CAR 27. 20-K.Coleman to CAR 27 for no gain (16-Ty.Williams).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 12 at the 64 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (:26) 5-M.Palardy punts 46 yards to LAC 18, Center-44-J.Jansen. 89-I.Burse to LAC 27 for 9 yards (57-J.Cash). PENALTY on CAR, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 27.