Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 79

Los Angeles Chargers 16 – Carolina Panthers 28

What Actually Happened

(4:03) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep left intended for 16-Ty.Williams INTERCEPTED by 20-K.Coleman at CAR 27. 20-K.Coleman to CAR 27 for no gain (16-Ty.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -2.08 EP

What Happened

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.20 EP
64% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 79, worth -3.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.97 EP