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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 16 at the 81

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:41) 8-D.Kaser punts 47 yards to CAR 34, Center-47-M.Windt. 19-T.Ginn to CAR 48 for 14 yards (53-J.Perry).

The Three Options

GO -3.19 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 81, worth -5.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 38, worth -2.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model