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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 13 at the 14

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Carolina Panthers 26

What Actually Happened

(4:30) 2-J.Lambo 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens.

The Three Options

GO +1.02 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.41 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 14, worth -0.75 EP
KICK +1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24, worth -1.39 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model