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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 15 at the 43

Carolina Panthers 28 – Los Angeles Chargers 16

What Actually Happened

(5:51) 5-M.Palardy punts 40 yards to LAC 3, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-57-J.Cash.

The Three Options

GO -0.40 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +3.87 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 43, worth -1.81 EP
KICK -0.51 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model