Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 12 at the 81

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Carolina Panthers 17

(8:27) 8-D.Kaser punts 45 yards to CAR 36, Center-47-M.Windt. 19-T.Ginn to CAR 40 for 4 yards (51-K.Emanuel).

The Three Options

GO -2.75 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.48 EP
67% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 81, worth -4.84 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model