Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 12 at the 64

Carolina Panthers 28 – Los Angeles Chargers 16

What Actually Happened

(:26) 5-M.Palardy punts 46 yards to LAC 18, Center-44-J.Jansen. 89-I.Burse to LAC 27 for 9 yards (57-J.Cash). PENALTY on CAR, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 27.

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +0.49 EP
70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 64, worth -1.02 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model