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CIN Away

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Marvin Lewis
@
CLE Home

Cleveland Browns

HC Hue Jackson
Sunday 2016-12-11 · 13:00 FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US 🌨 Snow Spread -4.0 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

CIN
73.7%
CLE
26.3%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to CIN: Robert Griffin (CLE) -0.379 vs Andy Dalton (CIN) +0.141 EPA/dropback (CLE starting Robert Griffin in place of Josh McCown)
  • CLE defense: +0.203 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • CIN offense: +0.086 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • CLE offense: -0.103 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • CLE on 7 more days rest than CIN
  • CIN defense: +0.077 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • Robert Griffin (CLE) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

CIN 23
–
CLE 15
Projected margin: CIN by 8 Projected total: 38

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

CIN

Wallace Gilberry DE Out Calf
A.J. Green WR Out Hamstring
Derron Smith S Out Thigh
C.J. Uzomah TE Out Calf
James Wright WR Out Knee
Clark Harris LS Questionable Groin

CLE

No players on the report.

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 23
–
CLE 10

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:26 TD CIN (12:26) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 85-T.Eifert for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 6 – CLE 0
  • Q1 06:33 TD CIN (6:33) 32-J.Hill right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. 70 C Ogbuehi reported as eligible CIN 13 – CLE 0
  • Q2 05:08 TD CIN (5:08) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 85-T.Eifert for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 19 – CLE 0
  • Q3 08:17 TD CLE (8:17) 10-R.Griffin up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. CIN 20 – CLE 6
  • Q4 14:17 FG CLE (14:17) (Field Goal formation) 3-C.Parkey 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. CIN 20 – CLE 10
  • Q4 08:41 FG CIN (8:41) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Nugent 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-T.Ott, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 23 – CLE 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 9 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (11:25) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 45 yards to CIN 46, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 12-A.Erickson to CLE 45 for 9 yards (20-B.Boddy-Calhoun).

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 1 at the 79
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (4:42) 10-R.Griffin up the middle to CLE 22 for 1 yard (57-V.Rey).

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 8 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (2:22) 4-B.Colquitt punts 54 yards to CIN 22, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 5 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (:55) 10-K.Huber punts 42 yards to CLE 31, Center-48-T.Ott, fair catch by 23-J.Haden.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 13 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (13:25) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 36 yards to CIN 22, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 36 for 14 yards (39-E.Reynolds).

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 12 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 38%

    (8:06) 10-K.Huber punts 40 yards to CLE 2, Center-48-T.Ott, downed by CIN-21-D.Dennard.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (2:34) 4-B.Colquitt punts 53 yards to CIN 13, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 12-A.Erickson ran ob at CIN 37 for 24 yards (54-D.Alexander).

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 12 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 90%

    (:04) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Nugent 36 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-T.Ott, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (13:50) 4-B.Colquitt punts 46 yards to CIN 25, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (12:58) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 72 yards to end zone, Center-48-T.Ott, Touchback.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 14 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (3:25) 10-K.Huber punts 42 yards to CLE 19, Center-48-T.Ott, fair catch by 23-J.Haden.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 8 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 95%

    (14:17) (Field Goal formation) 3-C.Parkey 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 6 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 80%

    (8:41) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Nugent 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-T.Ott, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 11 at the 52 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 16%

    (1:04) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-48-T.Ott, Touchback.