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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 73

Cincinnati Bengals 13 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(:55) 10-K.Huber punts 42 yards to CLE 31, Center-48-T.Ott, fair catch by 23-J.Haden.

The Three Options

GO -1.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.16 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 73, worth -4.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.71 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 31, worth -1.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model