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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 76

Cleveland Browns 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 13

What Actually Happened

(2:22) 4-B.Colquitt punts 54 yards to CIN 22, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.92 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.81 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 76, worth -4.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 34, worth -1.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model