4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 13 at the 58

Cleveland Browns 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 13

What Actually Happened

(13:25) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 36 yards to CIN 22, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 36 for 14 yards (39-E.Reynolds).

The Three Options

GO -1.19 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.14 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 58, worth -2.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 18, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model