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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 9 at the 91

Cleveland Browns 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(11:25) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 45 yards to CIN 46, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 12-A.Erickson to CLE 45 for 9 yards (20-B.Boddy-Calhoun).

The Three Options

GO -2.83 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +1.00 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 91, worth -5.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

PUNT -2.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 48, worth -2.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model