4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 79

Cleveland Browns 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 13

What Actually Happened

(4:42) 10-R.Griffin up the middle to CLE 22 for 1 yard (57-V.Rey).

The Three Options

GO -0.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +1.14 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 79, worth -4.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.60 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 36, worth -1.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model