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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 66

Cleveland Browns 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 20

What Actually Happened

(2:34) 4-B.Colquitt punts 53 yards to CIN 13, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 12-A.Erickson ran ob at CIN 37 for 24 yards (54-D.Alexander).

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.75 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 66, worth -3.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.62 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 24, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP