NYG @ PIT — 4th & Data

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HC Ben McAdoo

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HC Mike Tomlin

Sunday 2016-12-04 · 16:25 Heinz Field, Pittsburgh US 🌧 Rain Spread 7.0 O/U 49.5

Win Probability

NYG

38.9%

PIT

61.1%

🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

Wind 71 mph
NYG offense: -0.076 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
PIT offense: +0.097 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
Ben Roethlisberger (PIT): +0.135 EPA/dropback in prior starts
NYG defense: -0.089 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
PIT on 3 more days rest than NYG

Predicted Final Score

NYG 20

–

PIT 23

Projected margin: PIT by 3 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

NYG

Nat Berhe S Out Concussion

Mark Herzlich LB Out Concussion

Owamagbe Odighizuwa DE Out Knee

Justin Pugh G Out Knee

Brett Jones C Questionable Calf

Marshall Newhouse T Questionable Knee

PIT

Darrius Heyward-Bey WR Out Foot

DeAngelo Williams RB Out Knee

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 14

–

PIT 24

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 03:11 SAF PIT (3:11) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short middle to 13-O.Beckham pushed ob at NYG 20 for 15 yards (31-R.Cockrell). PENALTY on NYG-74-E.Flowers, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced in End Zone, SAFETY - No Play. NYG 0 – PIT 2
Q1 00:08 FG PIT (:08) (Field Goal formation) 2-R.Bullock 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. NYG 0 – PIT 5
Q2 07:20 TD PIT (7:20) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep right to 84-A.Brown for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 0 – PIT 11
Q2 00:28 FG PIT (:28) (Field Goal formation) 2-R.Bullock 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. NYG 0 – PIT 14
Q3 06:37 TD NYG (6:37) 10-E.Manning pass short right to 23-R.Jennings for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 6 – PIT 14
Q3 03:14 TD PIT (3:14) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 89-L.Green for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 7 – PIT 20
Q4 01:43 FG PIT (1:43) (Field Goal formation) 2-R.Bullock 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. NYG 7 – PIT 24
Q4 00:30 TD NYG (:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short right to 87-S.Shepard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 13 – PIT 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 PIT 4th & 1 at the 45

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.52 EP

p(convert) 69% p(FG) 6%

(11:10) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 30 yards to NYG 15, Center-60-G.Warren, out of bounds.
Q1 NYG 4th & 4 at the 57

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 46%

(7:39) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Touchback.
Q1 PIT 4th & 11 at the 49

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31% p(FG) 3%

(4:07) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 40 yards to NYG 9, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 17-D.Harris.
Q1 PIT 4th & 12 at the 26

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP

p(convert) 27% p(FG) 52%

(:08) (Field Goal formation) 2-R.Bullock 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.
Q2 NYG 4th & 3 at the 68

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 53%

(6:23) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 38 yards to PIT 30, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 84-A.Brown. Penalty on PIT-25-A.Burns, Offensive Holding, declined. PENALTY on PIT-33-F.Toussaint, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 30.
Q2 PIT 4th & 2 at the 16

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 55% p(FG) 83%

(:28) (Field Goal formation) 2-R.Bullock 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.
Q3 NYG 4th & 15 at the 80

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28%

(13:52) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 42 yards to PIT 38, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-51-Z.DeOssie. PENALTY on PIT-14-S.Coates, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at PIT 38.
Q3 PIT 4th & 17 at the 84

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 29%

(11:53) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 44 yards to NYG 40, Center-60-G.Warren, out of bounds.
Q3 NYG 4th & 1 at the 3

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 62% p(FG) 97%

(8:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short middle to 45-W.Tye (50-R.Shazier) [94-L.Timmons].
Q3 NYG 4th & 7 at the 72

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 39%

(1:49) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 40 yards to PIT 32, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-17-D.Harris.
Q4 NYG 4th & 13 at the 35

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 26% p(FG) 21%

(11:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass deep middle intended for 87-S.Shepard INTERCEPTED by 28-S.Davis at PIT 6. 28-S.Davis to PIT 47 for 41 yards (77-J.Jerry). PENALTY on PIT-25-A.Burns, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 3 yards, enforced at PIT 6.
Q4 PIT 4th & 3 at the 78

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP

p(convert) 56%

(8:29) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 34 yards to NYG 44, Center-60-G.Warren. 17-D.Harris to NYG 45 for 1 yard (98-V.Williams, 14-S.Coates). PENALTY on PIT, Illegal Substitution, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 45.
Q4 NYG 4th & 9 at the 24

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30% p(FG) 59%

(7:04) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning sacked at PIT 32 for -8 yards (90-R.Mathews).
Q4 PIT 4th & 3 at the 28 late-game

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 49% p(FG) 44%

(2:29) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 81-J.James to NYG 23 for 5 yards (41-D.Rodgers-Cromartie).
Q4 PIT 4th & 7 at the 20 late-game

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34% p(FG) 73%

(1:43) (Field Goal formation) 2-R.Bullock 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.