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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 12 at the 26

Pittsburgh Steelers 2 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(:08) (Field Goal formation) 2-R.Bullock 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +0.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.18 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 26, worth -0.71 EP
KICK +0.41 EP
What Happened
  • 52% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 36, worth -1.64 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP