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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 3

New York Giants 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

What Actually Happened

(8:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short middle to 45-W.Tye (50-R.Shazier) [94-L.Timmons].

The Three Options

GO +3.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.21 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 3, worth +0.13 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.86 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model