Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 17 at the 84

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – New York Giants 0

(11:53) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 44 yards to NYG 40, Center-60-G.Warren, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.92 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.74 EP
71% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 84, worth -4.79 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model