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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 28

Pittsburgh Steelers 21 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(2:29) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 81-J.James to NYG 23 for 5 yards (41-D.Rodgers-Cromartie).

The Three Options

GO +1.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +3.76 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 28, worth -1.11 EP
KICK +0.03 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 38, worth -1.51 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model