4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 20

Pittsburgh Steelers 21 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(1:43) (Field Goal formation) 2-R.Bullock 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +0.78 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +3.67 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 20, worth -0.75 EP
KICK +1.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 30, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model