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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 72

New York Giants 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 21

What Actually Happened

(1:49) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 40 yards to PIT 32, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-17-D.Harris.

The Three Options

GO -2.02 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.51 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 30, worth -1.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model