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Houston Texans

HC Bill O'Brien
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GB Home

Green Bay Packers

HC Mike McCarthy
Sunday 2016-12-04 · 13:00 Lambeau Field, Green Bay US 🌧 Rain Spread 7.0 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

HOU
31.3%
GB
68.7%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • GB offense: +0.115 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • QB edge to GB: Aaron Rodgers (GB) +0.157 vs Brock Osweiler (HOU) -0.085 EPA/dropback
  • GB defense: +0.114 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • HOU offense: -0.065 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

HOU 21
–
GB 27
Projected margin: GB by 6 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

HOU

Tyler Ervin RB Out Ribs
John Simon LB Out Chest
Jaelen Strong WR Out Ankle
Andre Hal S Questionable Illness
Alfred Blue RB Questionable Calf
Jadeveon Clowney DE Questionable Elbow
Brian Cushing LB Questionable Back

GB

Kyler Fackrell LB Out Hamstring
Demetri Goodson CB Out Knee
T.J. Lang G Doubtful Foot
J.C. Tretter C Doubtful Knee
Blake Martinez LB Questionable Knee
Clay Matthews LB Questionable Shoulder
Aaron Rodgers QB Questionable Hamstring
Jake Ryan LB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 13
–
GB 21

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 08:10 TD GB (8:10) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 18-R.Cobb for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 0 – GB 6
  • Q3 07:37 TD HOU (7:37) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass short right to 84-R.Griffin for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 6 – GB 7
  • Q4 12:50 TD GB (12:50) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 87-J.Nelson for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 7 – GB 13
  • Q4 04:18 TD GB (4:18) 68-K.Murphy reported in as eligible. 22-A.Ripkowski up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 7 – GB 20
  • Q4 02:00 TD HOU (2:00) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass deep right to 10-D.Hopkins for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 13 – GB 21

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 4 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (6:15) 9-S.Lechler punts 52 yards to GB 26, Center-46-J.Weeks. 18-R.Cobb pushed ob at GB 47 for 21 yards (43-C.Moore).

  • Q1 GB 4th & 4 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 31%

    (4:51) 10-J.Schum punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-61-B.Goode, Touchback.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 1 at the 49
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 26%

    (14:06) 63-K.Lamm reported in as eligible. 28-A.Blue left tackle to GB 49 for no gain (95-D.Jones, 21-H.Clinton-Dix).

  • Q2 GB 4th & 2 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 43%

    (11:49) 68-K.Murphy reported in as eligible. 32-C.Michael left end to HOU 37 for 5 yards (27-Q.Demps).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 7 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 20%

    (5:20) 9-S.Lechler punts 35 yards to GB 17, Center-46-J.Weeks. 18-R.Cobb to GB 40 for 23 yards (9-S.Lechler; 32-R.Nelson).

  • Q2 GB 4th & 5 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (4:10) 10-J.Schum punts 44 yards to HOU 11, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 15-W.Fuller.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 10 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (3:46) 9-S.Lechler punts 51 yards to GB 38, Center-46-J.Weeks. 25-M.Evans to GB 38 for no gain (50-A.Dent). PENALTY on GB-28-J.Hawkins, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at GB 38.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 7 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 22%

    (1:47) 10-J.Schum punts 40 yards to HOU 11, Center-61-B.Goode, downed by GB-28-J.Hawkins.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 9 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (12:42) 10-J.Schum punts 48 yards to HOU 21, Center-61-B.Goode. 15-W.Fuller to HOU 37 for 16 yards (28-J.Hawkins).

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 1 at the 6
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 97%

    (7:37) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass short right to 84-R.Griffin for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 2 at the 48
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 28%

    (6:16) (Shotgun) 22-A.Ripkowski left guard to HOU 47 for 1 yard (75-V.Wilfork).

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 5 at the 36
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.13 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 59%

    (3:10) 9-S.Lechler punts 34 yards to GB 2, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-20-D.Jones.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 7 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 38%

    (8:59) 9-S.Lechler punts 33 yards to GB 11, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 18-R.Cobb.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 10 at the 48 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.59 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 28%

    (:12) 10-J.Schum punts 36 yards to HOU 12, Center-61-B.Goode, out of bounds.