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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 55

Green Bay Packers 7 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(4:10) 10-J.Schum punts 44 yards to HOU 11, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 15-W.Fuller.

The Three Options

GO -0.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.77 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 55, worth -2.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.21 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 16, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model