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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 44

Houston Texans 7 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(8:59) 9-S.Lechler punts 33 yards to GB 11, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 18-R.Cobb.

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.38 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.44 EP
KICK -1.22 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.42 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP