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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 49

Houston Texans 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(14:06) 63-K.Lamm reported in as eligible. 28-A.Blue left tackle to GB 49 for no gain (95-D.Jones, 21-H.Clinton-Dix).

The Three Options

GO +0.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.37 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.01 EP
KICK -1.83 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.75 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model