4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 52

Houston Texans 0 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(5:20) 9-S.Lechler punts 35 yards to GB 17, Center-46-J.Weeks. 18-R.Cobb to GB 40 for 23 yards (9-S.Lechler; 32-R.Nelson).

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.75 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 52, worth -2.93 EP
KICK -1.94 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.89 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model