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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 47

Green Bay Packers 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(4:51) 10-J.Schum punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-61-B.Goode, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.37 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 47, worth -2.12 EP
KICK -0.76 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.69 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.27 EP
PUNT +0.43 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 13, worth +0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model