4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 6

Houston Texans 0 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(7:37) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass short right to 84-R.Griffin for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.81 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 6, worth -0.15 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model