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Los Angeles Rams

HC Jeff Fisher
@
NO Home

New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
Sunday 2016-11-27 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread 7.5 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

LA
24.9%
NO
75.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to NO: Drew Brees (NO) +0.252 vs Jared Goff (LA) -0.222 EPA/dropback
  • LA offense: -0.088 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • NO offense: +0.092 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • NO defense: +0.061 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • NO on 3 more days rest than LA

Predicted Final Score

LA 20
–
NO 28
Projected margin: NO by 8 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

LA

Tim Barnes C Questionable Foot
Ethan Westbrooks DT Questionable Thigh

NO

Daniel Lasco RB Out Hamstring
Terron Armstead T Questionable Knee
Travaris Cadet RB Questionable Toe
Tony Hills T Questionable Abdomen
Mark Ingram RB Questionable Concussion
Senio Kelemete C Questionable Triceps
Shiloh Keo S Questionable Neck
Tim Lelito G Questionable Calf
David Onyemata DE Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LA 21
–
NO 49

Prediction missed by 20 pts on margin, 22 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:14 TD LA (12:14) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 11-T.Austin for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 24, YAC 0 PENALTY on LA-18-K.Britt, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. LA 6 – NO 0
  • Q1 02:49 TD NO (2:49) 9-D.Brees pass short middle to 16-B.Coleman for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 3, YAC 0 LA 7 – NO 6
  • Q2 14:47 TD LA (14:47) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 18-K.Britt for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 2, YAC 4 LA 13 – NO 7
  • Q2 09:43 TD NO (9:43) 22-M.Ingram left end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 14 – NO 13
  • Q2 07:47 TD NO (7:47) (Run formation) 68-T.Lelito reported in as eligible. 9-D.Brees up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LA 14 – NO 20
  • Q2 02:29 TD NO (2:29) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 13-M.Thomas for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 6, YAC 0 LA 14 – NO 27
  • Q2 01:00 TD LA (1:00) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 88-L.Kendricks for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 13, YAC 2 LA 20 – NO 28
  • Q3 13:05 TD NO (13:05) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 22-M.Ingram for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass -6, YAC 27 LA 21 – NO 34
  • Q3 03:49 TD NO (3:49) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 13-M.Thomas for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 13, YAC 8 LA 21 – NO 41
  • Q4 10:26 TD NO (10:26) 83-W.Snead pass deep right to 34-T.Hightower for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN [26-M.Barron]. Pass 22, YAC 28. Brees took the snap, and threw backwards and left to Snead. Snead threw deep to Hightower on the right side for the touchdown. LA 21 – NO 48

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 12 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 37%

    (9:17) 6-T.Morstead punts 39 yards to LA 8, Center-47-J.Drescher, fair catch by 11-T.Austin.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 10 at the 92
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (7:24) 6-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to NO 49, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 87-T.Lewis.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 7 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (15:00) 6-J.Hekker punts 40 yards to NO 14, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 31-J.Byrd.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 1 at the 10
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 96%

    (9:43) 22-M.Ingram left end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 98%

    (7:47) (Run formation) 68-T.Lelito reported in as eligible. 9-D.Brees up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 7 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (6:19) 6-J.Hekker punts 47 yards to NO 14, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 87-T.Lewis to NO 22 for 8 yards (58-C.Littleton).

  • Q3 NO 4th & 3 at the 42
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.83 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 50%

    (10:05) 6-T.Morstead punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Drescher, Touchback.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (7:07) 6-J.Hekker punts 53 yards to NO 8, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 87-T.Lewis.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 12 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (:04) 6-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to NO 21, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 87-T.Lewis MUFFS catch, touched at NO 21, recovered by NO-49-S.Keo at NO 19. 49-S.Keo to NO 19 for no gain (23-B.Cunningham).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 1 at the 33
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 71%

    (8:37) 30-T.Gurley left guard to NO 33 for no gain (94-C.Jordan).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 6 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (7:04) 6-T.Morstead punts 59 yards to LA 4, Center-47-J.Drescher. 11-T.Austin to LA 12 for 8 yards (49-S.Keo).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 17 at the 95
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (5:38) 6-J.Hekker punts 68 yards to NO 27, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-13-M.Thomas.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 17 at the 39 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.87 EP
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 57%

    (2:00) 6-T.Morstead punts 39 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Drescher, Touchback.