Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 7 at the 61

Los Angeles Rams 14 – New Orleans Saints 21

(6:19) 6-J.Hekker punts 47 yards to NO 14, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 87-T.Lewis to NO 22 for 8 yards (58-C.Littleton).

The Three Options

GO -1.24 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.44 EP
62% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 61, worth -3.48 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model