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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
New Orleans Saints
4th & 1 at the 10
New Orleans Saints 7 – Los Angeles Rams 14
What Actually Happened
(9:43) 22-M.Ingram left end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+3.47 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.38 EP
- 34% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 10, worth -0.16 EP
KICK
+1.82 EP
- 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
- 4% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT
-0.27 EP
- Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
