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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 92

Los Angeles Rams 7 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(7:24) 6-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to NO 49, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 87-T.Lewis.

The Three Options

GO -3.50 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.26 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 92, worth -5.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

PUNT -3.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 50, worth -3.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model