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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 42

New Orleans Saints 35 – Los Angeles Rams 21

What Actually Happened

(10:05) 6-T.Morstead punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Drescher, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.48 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 42, worth -2.12 EP
KICK -0.30 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 12, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.83 EP