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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Los Angeles Rams
4th & 1 at the 33
Los Angeles Rams 21 – New Orleans Saints 49
What Actually Happened
(8:37) 30-T.Gurley left guard to NO 33 for no gain (94-C.Jordan).
The Three Options
GO
+2.03 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.84 EP
- 34% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 33, worth -1.55 EP
KICK
+0.67 EP
- 71% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
- 29% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 43, worth -2.03 EP
PUNT
-0.36 EP
- New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
